Nvidia Earnings: Do They Move the Whole Nasdaq-100?

Why people expect it

Nvidia is the biggest stock in the Nasdaq-100. On September 30, 2026, it weighed 8.36% of the index, and the top 10 stocks together 46.86%, according to the Nasdaq-100 fact sheet. A one-day move adds roughly weight × move: a 9% jump at an 8.36% weight adds about 0.75 point to the index.

Press coverage often quotes much higher weights. On August 27, 2026, XTB put Nvidia above 13% of the index after a 9% post-earnings jump. A stock3 commentary in February said about 14%, with no source. Neither matches the index provider's own number. Before you repeat a weight, check the provider.

What we found

We flagged the week in which the market first traded after each report. Every Nvidia report in our sample came out after the close, so that's the next trading day.

• Against luck: we drew 43 random weeks 10,000 times. 77% of the random draws moved at least as much as the real report weeks.
• Direction: report weeks closed up 56% of the time, other weeks 60%. Average return +0.33% vs +0.40%.
• The AI era didn't change it. Since January 2023, the period of the AI rally, report weeks were the calmer ones: 1.68% vs 2.14%.

What this means if you trade NQ

Two things can both be true. The day after a report, Nvidia can move the index by most of a point, like on August 27, 2026. Over the week, that move often gets offset by the rest of the index, or it's just no bigger than what CPI, the Fed or other megacaps do in a normal week. Treat an Nvidia report as one known catalyst on the calendar, not as a reason to expect a crazy week.

Limits

• Weekly data. The real reaction happens in one session, and a weekly return dilutes it with four other days. A daily test is the next step, and could show a different result for the reaction day itself.
• QQQ, not NQ. Same index; the futures also trade overnight, when Nvidia's after-hours reaction starts.
• Small sample. 15 reports since 2023 is too few to tell a real change from noise.
• Report dates from one source. Alpha Vantage EARNINGS, not checked one by one against Nvidia's releases.

Method and sources

• QQQ weekly prices: Alpha Vantage TIME_SERIES_WEEKLY; dividends from Alpha Vantage DIVIDENDS.
• Nvidia report dates and timing: Alpha Vantage EARNINGS.
• Index weights: Nasdaq-100 fact sheet, as of September 30, 2026.

Research and education only. Not financial advice. Past results do not predict future returns.